Build a weighted pipeline forecast from open deals
To forecast sales in Mautic, record an amount and current stage for each open opportunity, assign a probability to each stage, multiply every open deal amount by its stage probability, and add the results. Keep that weighted figure separate from raw stage totals: a board total shows the full amount currently sitting in a stage, while the weighted forecast adjusts each open deal by the probability represented by its stage. Core reports can aggregate fields in a selected data source; forecasting needs this deal-and-stage model.
Core report behavior checked August 28, 2026 against the official Mautic Reports documentation.
Deal Flow supplies the documented deal, stage, reporting, and dashboard surfaces for this Revenue Operations workflow inside Mautic. The rest of this guide keeps the full-value and probability-weighted views distinct.
What core Mautic reports can say about revenue
Core Mautic reports start with a selected data source. That source determines the columns, filters, and graphs available to the report. When a report is grouped, calculated columns can apply count, average, sum, minimum, or maximum functions to selected fields. This is useful for summarizing the values already exposed by that source.
A sales forecast asks a different question from a simple sum. It needs to know which opportunities are open, the amount attached to each one, its current stage, and the probability assigned to that stage. The core reporting documentation does not define that deal-stage probability model, so its standard data-source aggregations do not produce this weighted pipeline calculation on their own.
Use the right number for the question. A raw sum tells you how much value is recorded. A weighted forecast applies a probability model to open pipeline. Neither number replaces the other.
Source: Mautic Reports, checked August 28, 2026.
Start with deal amounts and raw stage totals
Deal Flow documents an amount field on each deal, displayed in the configured currency. Its kanban cards show deal amounts, while stage headers show the deal count and total amount in that stage. Those headers answer a direct operating question: how much full, unweighted pipeline value is sitting at each point in the process?
The stage header is not the weighted forecast. If a Proposal stage contains three open deals totaling $300,000, the header shows that full total. Probability weighting happens in the documented report calculation, not in the board header.
For a deeper setup walkthrough, see how to track deal value in Mautic. For the broader choice of tracking methods, see how to track deals in Mautic.
Sources: Deal fields and kanban documentation and the kanban stage-total changelog entry, checked August 28, 2026.
Apply the documented weighted-forecast formula
Deal Flow documents Weighted Forecast as the sum of each open deal amount multiplied by its stage probability:
Weighted forecast = sum(open deal amount × stage probability)
Convert each stage percentage to a decimal before multiplying. A deal amount of $120,000 in a 25% stage contributes $30,000 to the weighted forecast: $120,000 × 0.25 = $30,000. Repeat the multiplication for every open deal, then add the contributions. Because the published formula specifies open deals, closed deals do not enter this calculation.
Source: Deal Flow Reports, checked August 28, 2026.
Work through an illustrative three-deal forecast
The values below are hypothetical deal amounts used only to show the arithmetic. They are unrelated to Deal Flow pricing, and the stage names and probabilities are examples rather than configuration recommendations.
| Deal | Stage | Amount | Stage probability | Weighted contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwind Expansion | Discovery | $120,000 | 25% | $30,000 |
| Harbor Renewal | Proposal | $80,000 | 50% | $40,000 |
| Summit Rollout | Negotiation | $50,000 | 80% | $40,000 |
The raw pipeline total is $250,000. The board keeps that value separated by stage: $120,000 in Discovery, $80,000 in Proposal, and $50,000 in Negotiation. The weighted contributions total $110,000: $30,000 + $40,000 + $40,000.
Both results are correct for their purpose. The $250,000 total describes full open-pipeline value in this example. The $110,000 result describes the same example after applying stage probabilities.
Read the forecast in reports and dashboard widgets
Deal Flow documents two report metrics that matter directly here. Weighted Forecast supplies the probability-adjusted view for open deals. Stage Coverage groups deal count and value by current stage, keeping the full-value distribution visible alongside the forecast.
On the Mautic home dashboard, Pipeline Summary shows deal count and total value per stage. Revenue Forecast shows the weighted forecast for the current and next month. These widgets bring the same two perspectives into the dashboard: where full pipeline value sits and what its probability-adjusted view looks like.
Sources: Deal Flow Reports and Deal Flow dashboard widgets, checked August 28, 2026.
Use a repeatable forecast review
- Check the inputs. Confirm that open deals have current amounts and stages before reading the forecast.
- Read raw stage totals. Use the board or Stage Coverage to see where full pipeline value is concentrated.
- Read the weighted result. Use Weighted Forecast or Revenue Forecast for the probability-adjusted view.
- Explain the gap. Identify which stages and deals create the largest difference between raw and weighted value.
- Review again on the same cadence. A consistent weekly or monthly comparison makes changes in the inputs easier to spot.
The arithmetic supports a conversation; it does not replace one. Stage probabilities express a model, so review the underlying deals and keep their stages and amounts current.
Add weighted pipeline forecasting to Mautic
Deal Flow keeps deals, stage totals, reports, and buying-committee context in one Revenue Operations workflow.
Explore Deal Flow Try free for 7 daysSources checked August 28, 2026
- Mautic Reports documentation for data sources, available report fields, grouping, and calculated columns.
- Deal Flow Deals documentation for the deal amount and kanban-card fields.
- Deal Flow Reports documentation for Weighted Forecast, its formula, and Stage Coverage.
- Deal Flow dashboard-widget documentation for Pipeline Summary and Revenue Forecast.
- Deal Flow changelog for stage-header deal counts and total amounts.
Frequently asked questions
What is a weighted sales forecast?
A weighted sales forecast is the sum of each open deal amount multiplied by its current stage probability. It is a probability-adjusted view, not the raw total shown by stage.
Are kanban stage totals the same as the weighted forecast?
No. Stage headers show the deal count and total amount in each stage. The documented weighted forecast applies stage probability to each open deal amount and appears in reports.
Which Deal Flow reports support forecasting?
Weighted Forecast shows probability-adjusted expected revenue for open deals, while Stage Coverage groups deal count and value by current stage.
Which dashboard widgets show pipeline value?
Pipeline Summary shows deal count and total value per stage. Revenue Forecast shows the weighted forecast for the current and next month.